Accuracy

No forecasts are published yet; crossing pages show CBP's current and typical waits. Before forecasts appear, they have to pass a test set in advance:

• Four weeks of data the forecasts were not built on.
• Lower mean absolute error than CBP's typical wait for the same hour, at each crossing where they are shown.
• The likely range contains the actual wait between 75% and 85% of the time (it is meant to be an 80% range).
• Holiday weeks reported separately, because they behave differently.

Once forecasts are live, this page will show those numbers for each crossing over the last four weeks, from forecasts recorded before the actual wait was known. See Methodology for the data behind them.